Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
