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Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.